Youth Protection Intelligence

Youth Vulnerability Index

Predict Where
Recruitment Happens.
Intervene Before It Does.

The Youth Vulnerability Index fuses data from police, education, health, and social services into a single predictive intelligence system — scoring parish-level vulnerability weekly and enabling targeted intervention against organized crime recruitment networks.

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90-day pilot · One city · First intelligence product in weeks

Prediction Window 24–48 hrs
Scoring Cadence Weekly
Data Sources 6+ Agencies
Resolution Parish-Level
The Crisis

An
Unprecedented
Threat

Grupos Delictivos Organizados are actively recruiting minors into criminal networks across the most vulnerable communities. Youth homicide rates in priority cities rank among the highest in Latin America. Juvenile arrests linked to GDO activity are accelerating — 367 in H1 2023 in Guayaquil Zone 8 alone.

The agencies responsible for protecting youth — military, police, education, health, social services — each hold fragments of the picture. Police know arrest patterns. Schools know dropout rates. Health clinics see the injuries. Social workers see the family dynamics. But no single system connects these signals into a coherent threat picture.

Without a unified intelligence picture, interventions are reactive. By the time an agency responds, the recruitment has already happened. The opportunity for prevention — for reaching a vulnerable young person before a recruiter does — is lost.

~146/100K

Youth homicide rate in Durán — most dangerous city in Ecuador

367

Juvenile arrests linked to GDO activity, Guayaquil Zone 8, H1 2023

15+

GDO factions operating across Guayaquil metropolitan area

37

Priority parishes identified for YVI deployment

Data Sources

Six Agency
Categories

01

Police

Arrest patterns, crime reports, incident data, patrol activity, territorial control indicators.

02

Education

Dropout rates, attendance anomalies, disciplinary events, school transfer patterns, enrollment gaps.

03

Health

Injury reports, emergency admissions, substance abuse indicators, trauma patterns consistent with violence exposure.

04

Social Services

Family referrals, domestic violence reports, child welfare cases, displacement records, community support requests.

05

Community

Social media signals, community tips, OSINT collection, local informant reporting, neighborhood-level situational awareness.

06

Financial

Unusual economic activity in high-risk areas, transaction patterns inconsistent with formal employment, cash flow anomalies.

Capability

Predict
Prevent
Disrupt

01

Youth Vulnerability Index

Parish-level vulnerability scoring computed weekly from fused multi-agency data. Identifies which communities and which youth populations are most at risk of GDO recruitment before it happens.

02

Predictive Recruitment Detection

AI models trained on country-specific threat data that forecast recruitment events, dropout risk, and violence hotspots 24–48 hours in advance.

03

Network Intelligence

Social network analysis and pattern-of-life intelligence that maps recruitment networks, identifies key recruiters and facilitators, and generates actionable targeting packages.

04

Cross-Agency Coordination

A single operational picture shared by military, police, and civil authorities with role-based access — enabling coordinated prevention and enforcement for the first time.

Five intelligence products — from daily operational summaries to deep-dive threat assessments — creating a tiered capability that transforms fragmented data into a predictive system.

Intelligence Products

Daily recruitment indicators, violent incidents, and youth exposure zones. Real-time early warning alerts enabling intervention in less than 24 hours.

Daily Cadence
INTSUM Daily Intelligence Summary

Parish-level recruitment hotspots, emerging trends, cross-agency intelligence sharing. Structured threat indicators supporting operational planning.

Weekly Cadence
WTA Weekly Threat Assessment

Macro trends in youth violence, recruitment patterns, and displacement. Strategic resource allocation and national policy responses. Data-driven governance reporting.

Monthly Cadence
MSE Monthly Strategic Estimate

Key recruiters, facilitators, and criminal networks identified for precision disruption. Structured investigative outputs that accelerate enforcement operations.

On Demand
TNP Target Nomination Package

Community-level gang networks, vulnerability patterns, recruitment influencers. Deep-dive threat assessment with network development and pattern-of-life analysis.

Deep Dive
CIB Community Intelligence Brief
Objectives

Three
Strategic
Outcomes

OKR 1

Reduce Youth Recruitment

Fewer minors entering criminal networks, fewer youth homicides, higher school retention in high-risk parishes.

OKR 2

Achieve Data Maturity

Formalize cross-agency data sharing, digitize critical records, build the quantitative foundation for predictive intelligence.

OKR 3

Build a Scalable System

Establish the operational model, intelligence methodology, and technology that extends from one city to national coverage.

Pilot

90-Day
Proof of Value

Investment: $150,000

Candidate Cities

01

Durán

Most dangerous city (~146/100K). Compact geography (3 parishes), high GDO fragmentation. Smallest operational footprint with highest risk concentration.

02

Guayaquil

Largest city, epicenter of crisis. Highest juvenile arrest volume. Most complex environment but strongest institutional infrastructure.

03

Esmeraldas

Border corridor city. Colombian armed group penetration, remote geography. Best for cross-border network dynamics.

One city. One use case. One platform. National blueprint.

Scale

National
Pathway

Phase 1 — Months 4–9

Foundation

Comprehensive data maturity assessments, digitization of paper-based systems, cross-agency data-sharing agreements.

Phase 2 — Months 10–15

Integration

Cross-agency data feeds, YVI v1.0 computing parish-level vulnerability scores, full cadence of intelligence products.

Phase 3 — Months 16–24

Intelligence

Predictive analytics across all 37 priority parishes, full product suite including TNPs and CIBs, F3EAD targeting operations.

Phase 4 — Months 25–36

Scale

Additional cities (Machala, Portoviejo), 5+ cities operational, national intelligence capability, rapid city-onboarding playbook.

YVI connects to every other intelligence program. The same data that predicts youth recruitment also maps cartel networks and financial flows.

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Resource Protection

Protect the next generation with predictive intelligence.

90-day pilot. One city. First intelligence product in weeks. Prove the model, then scale nationally.

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90-day proof of value · Full data sovereignty · Air-gapped capable